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Saturday, February 25, 2006

Predictions for Oscars 2006

Yes, I did say that I was going to make my predictions a day before the Oscars, but considering that most awards events are already over, there's really nothing that can affect my predictions anymore (note: you always need to worry when a supposedly hot favourite for a particular award loses momentum towards the end, this has happened many times before). Last year, I was so blinded by my love for Sideways that I made some costly errors in my predictions.

Right, so let's begin. After the Oscars, I'll revisit this entry and see how many I've gotten correct.

Best Picture

This year is difficult. All nominated films are good films, but I don't have a personal favourite amongst them. They were more like films I appreciated more than I like. But Brokeback Mountain (my review here) will most likely win, despite the media making it seem as if Crash would upset it. I like Crash (my review here), and I think was probably more entertained by it than Brokeback Mountain, but Brokeback will win.

Prediction: Brokeback Mountain
Preference: None. I don't have a particular favourite this year, which is a rarity. (I used to root for a particular film for this category during the past few years, them being Sideways, the three Lord of the Rings films, Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon, American Beauty etc.)

Best Actor In A Leading Role

It's Heath Ledger versus Philip Seymour Hoffman. One can say that Heath did better cos' his entire performance came from his own imagination whilst Philip had the real life Truman Capote (my review for Capote is here) for reference. But not everybody could pull off Truman Capote that well. Philip's the hot favourite, he'll win.

Prediction: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Preference: Philip Seymous Hoffman (well, it's time for a character actor to get his due)

Best Actress In A Leading Role

Felicity Huffman would have a chance if Transamerica's box-office grosses were more than 1.5 million. Unfortunately, that didn't happen. So Reese Witherspoon will mostly definitely win this one for Walk The Line (my review for it is here, where I also made a bold prediction that she would win too).

Prediction: Reese Witherspoon
Preference: Reese Witherspoon

Best Supporting Actor

Unfortunately, I haven't seen Syrania, so I wouldn't know why George Clooney's the hot favourite here. But since he's most likely rewarded for this than writer or directing Good Night And Good Luck (my review here), he'll win it. I prefer to see Matt Dillon winning it (to think that a guy who was once in There's Something About Mary, a comedy classic IMO, mind you, winning an Oscar is mindblowing), or Paul Giamatti, since the guy was robbed of a nomination for Sideways last year.

Prediction: George Clooney
Preference: Mat Dillon or Paul Giamatti

Best Supporting Actress

I haven't seen Junebug, so I don't know how good the much-lauded Amy Adams' acting was. But I think Rachel Weisz will most likely win this one for her role in The Constant Gardener (my review here).

Prediction: Rachel Weisz
Preference: Rachel Weisz

Best Director

Many predicted that Ang Lee would win for Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon back in 2000. But Steven Soderbergh scored an upset victory for Traffic. I doubt an upset will happen again. Yay, let him be the first Asian director to win this!

Prediction: Ang Lee
Preference: Ang Lee

Best Animated Film

I've yet to watch Howl's Moving Castle. And I am torn between Wallace and Gromit (my review here) and Corpse Bride. It is most likely that I would like Howl's more than these two, but I guess Wallace will win it. But speaking of Tim Burton, I am briefly reminded of a conversation two days ago at the uni cafetaria, when me and two other students of the postgrad diploma course ran into this (sorta weird) bald Chinese dude. He seemed more interested in speaking to Catherine from the exotic and mysterious Peru than me, which annoyed me mildly. But this part of the conversation stuck out most to me:

Bald dude to Catherine: Tell me, what do you think of Magical Realism?
Me: Aha! Italo Calvino and Jorge Luis Borges?
Bald dude (turns to me): No, I meant Tim Burton.
Me: Oh.
Prediction: Wallace and Gromit
Preference: Hard to say. I'm not rooting for either Wallace and Gromit or Corpse Bride (mostly because of its downer of an ending, bah!)

Best Foreign Film

Most said that it's most likely a fight between South Africa's Tsotsi and Palestine's Paradise Now. I have seen neither. Er... Roger Ebert predicted Tsotsi, but more people seem to be talking about Paradise Now, so I'll go with the latter.

Prediction: Paradise Now
Preference: None. Didn't watch any of the nominees.

Best Documentary

Again, I haven't seen any of the nominees. But sleeper hit March of the Penguins will most win this.

Prediction: March of the Penguins
Preference: None.

Best Original Screenplay

I like Good Night, and Good Luck for being so effective despite its simplicity (my review here). But Crash will most likely win (which makes Paul Haggis the winner for the second consecutive year).

Prediction: Crash
Preference: Good Night, and Good Luck.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Brokeback Mountain will win. Easily.

Brokeback Mountain
Preference: Brokeback Mountain

Film Editing

The Constant Gardener's fast and rapid cuts mesmerized me. The nominees were pretty conventional.

Prediction: The Constant Gardener
Preference: The Constant Gardener

Art Direction

King Kong was visually spectacular (my review here). King Kong will win.

Prediction: King Kong
Preference: King Kong


Good Night, and Good Luck and Brokeback Mountain have pretty good chemistry. Superhero films like Batman Begins won't win. Memoirs of Geisha got too much negative reviews to really win a single Oscar. Much have been said about The New World, but so little people have seen it that I doubt it'll get anything either. I'll go with Good Night, And Good Luck. I would like to shoot a black and white film as pretty as that.

Prediction: Good Night, And Good Luck
Preference: Good Night, And Good Luck

Sound Mixing

King Kong. Definitely King Kong.

Prediction: King Kong
Preference: King Kong

Sound Editing

Actually, if King Kong deserved more Oscar nominations than just the technical ones, but never mind

Prediction: King Kong
Preference: King Kong

Original Score

You hear the Brokeback Mountain score everywhere nowadays.

Prediction: Brokeback Mountain
Preference: Brokeback Mountain

Original Song

Neither of them were memorable. And I didn't see Hustle And Flow. It'll be funny if it wins though.

Prediction: In The Deep from Crash
Preference: It's Hard Out There For A Pimp by Hustle And Flow

Costume Design

Pride and Prejudice vs Memoirs of Geisha. Neither films I've seen, but my personal disdain for Geisha has me rooting for Pride and Prejudice.

Prediction: Pride And Prejudice
Preference: Charlie And The Chocolate Factory (it has some good costumes)


Er, hard one, I'll assume that they'll try to award George Lucas one last time. So I'm going with Star Wars 3: Revenge of the Sith (it has good makeup, see poor old Ani after he got burnt, HAH)

Prediction: Star Wars 3: Revenge of the Sith
Preference: Star Wars 3: Revenge of the Sith

Visual Effects

King Kong. Easily.

Prediction: King Kong
Preference: King Kong